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[WallText] For those who really want to be forex traders.
Im sry if u find some grammatical errors, english is not my mother language. Let me know and i will fix it. First of all, look for at least half an hour without interruptions to read this manual. This is the system that has created trading professionals. He has done it and today he continues doing it, as it happened with me. It is not a system written in any forum, in fact I believe that it has been the first to collect all the ideas and create a structure to follow to carry them out, but these same ideas and procedures have been the ones that the winning traders have used during decades and will continue to use, since they are based on completely objective and real foundations. Let's go to it: Hi all. It is known that the observation time makes the patterns elucidate, and after some time in the forum and throughout this trading world I have found many patterns in the responses of the people, I have reasoned about them, and I have realized their failures, why they fail to be profitable. There are people who have put effort into this. Not all, but there are people who have really read a lot, studied a lot, learned a lot and tried a lot, and even then they are not able to achieve stable profitability. The question is: Is there enough in that effort? Is there a specific moment in the line of learning where you start to be profitable? The question is, logically. There are traders that generate constant profitability. Hedge funds, investment firms ... and the difference is in areas where people for some reason do not want to invest time. Why are there more messages in the strategy forums than in the psychology, journals and fundamental analysis together? As human beings, our brain is programmed to look for quick positive responses. In nature, the brain does not understand the concept of long-term investment. There is only a short-term investment made from the difference between what we think will cost us something and what we think it will contribute. If we think that it will cost us more than it can give us, we simply do not feel motivated. It is a simple mechanism. The market plays with these mechanisms. There are more scalpers created from the search for that positive emotion than from the search for a scalping system. In short, we are not programmed to operate, and there lies the fact that only a huge minority of operators are profitable. Among others, I have observed several patterns of behavior that make a trader fail, and they are: - Search for immediate pleasure: The trader wants to feel that he has won on the one hand, and on the other he wants to avoid the feeling of loss. Following this there are many traders who place a very low take profit and a very high stop loss. This is not bad if the probabilities have been reviewed before, the mathematical factor of hope, the relation with the drawdown .. but in the majority of the cases absolutely nothing of statistics is known. There is only that need to win. They win, they win, they win, until one day the odds do their job and the stop loss is touched, returning the account to its origins or leaving it with less money than it started. This does not work. - Search for immediate wealth: Again it is something immediate. People want good emotions, and we want them already. The vast majority of traders approach this world with fantasies of wealth, women and expensive cars, but do not visualize hard work, the sickly hard work behind all this. From there underlie behaviors like eternally looking for new robots or expert advisors that promise a lot of money, or new systems. The type of trader that has this integrated pattern is characterized by doing nothing more than that. Spend the day looking for new strategies Of course he never manages to earn constant money. - Think that trading is easy: Trading is not easy, it is simple. Why? Because when you get the wisdom and experience necessary to find yourself in a state of superior knowledge about the market and effectively make money, it is very simple; you just have to apply the same equation again and again. However, it is not easy to reach this equation. This equation includes variables such as risk understanding, mathematics, certain characteristics in the personality that must be assimilated little by little, intelligence, a lot of experience .. This is not easy. This is a business, and in fact it is one of the most difficult businesses in the world. It may seem simple to see a series of candles on a screen or perhaps a line, or any type of graphic, but it is not. Behind the screen there are hundreds of thousands of very intelligent professionals, very disciplined, very educated, very ... This business is the most profitable in the world if you know how to carry, since it is based on the concept of compound interest, but it is also one of the most difficult. And I repeat. It's a business, not a game. I think you'll never hear a lawyer say to his boss: "We're going to focus all our time on finding a strategy that ALWAYS makes us win a trial, ALWAYS." What does it sound ridiculous? It sounds to me just as ridiculous for trading. But you are not to blame, you have been subconsciously deceived through the advertising brokers and your own internal desires, to think that this is something easy. - Lack of discipline: Trading is not something you can do 10 minutes on Monday and 6 on Thursday. This is not a game, and until you get a regular schedule you can not start earning money. There are people who open a graph one day for 5 minutes, then return to their normal life and then one week returns to look at it for other minutes. Trading should not be treated as a hobby. If you want to win "some money" I advise you not even to get in, because you will end up losing something or a lot of money. You have to think if you really want trading to be part of your life. It's like when you meet a girl and you want to get married. Do you really want to get into this with all the consequences? Because otherwise it will not work. Visualize the hard work behind this. Candle nights, frustrations, several hundred dollars lost (at the beginning) .. enter the world of trading with a really deep reason, if you lose a time and money that no one will return, and both things are finite! - Know something and pretend to know everything: Making money in the markets is not based on painting the graph as a child a paper with crayon wax and pretend to make money. It is not based on drawing lines or circles, or squares. It is based on understanding the operation of all these tools, the background of the why of the tools of trading. A trend line only marks the cycle of a wave within a longer time frame, within a longer time frame, and so on indefinitely. In turn, this wave is divided into waves with a specific behavior, divided into smaller waves and Etcetera, and understanding that dynamic is fundamental to winning. It is not the fact of drawing a line. That can be done by an 8 year old boy. It is the fact of UNDERSTANDING why. There are traders who read two technical analysis books and a delta analysis book and believe that they are professionals, but do they really understand the behavior of the market? The answer is in their portfolios. After this explanation that only 10% will have read, I will try to detail step by step something that is 90% yearning, and that will have quickly turned the scroll of your mouse to find the solution to all your problems while supporting the beer in a book of " become rich ", rotten by lack of use. These steps must be carried out one by one, starting with the first, fulfilling it, moving on to the second, successively and growing. If steps are taken for granted, or not fully met, it simply will not work. I know this will happen and the person who did it will think "Bah, this does not work." and you will return to your top strategy search routine. That said, let start: 1º Create a REAL account with 50 dollars approximately: _ Forget the demo accounts. They are a utopia, they do not work. There is infinite liquidity, without emotions and without slipagge. These things will change when we enter the real market, and the most experienced person in the world will notice a sharp drop in their profitability when it happens to real accounts. And not only using a demo account has disadvantages, but using a real one has advantages. We will have a real slipagge with real liquidity. Real requotes and more. The most important: We will work our emotions at the same time. Because yes, we will lose or win a couple of cents, but that has a subconscious impact of loss. This means that we will begin to expand our comfort zone from the start. Using a demo account is simply a disadvantage. 2º Buy a newspaper in the stationery or in Chinese (optional), or write one online or in Word: A newspaper will be of GREAT help. You can not imagine, for those of you who do not have one, how a newspaper can exponentiate our learning curve. It is simply absurd not to have a diary. It's like taking a ticket of 5 instead of one of 100. In this diary we will write down observations that we make about the operations that we will carry out in points that I will explain later of this same manual. We will divide the newspaper into 2 parts:
1 part: The operation itself. We will write the reasons for each operation. The why we have done it.
2 part: How we feel. We will unburden ourselves without explaining how we feel, what our intuition tells us about that particular operation and so on.
How to use: We will read the newspaper once a week, thinking about the emotions we felt each day and in what situations, and the reasons. Soon, we will begin to realize that we have certain patterns in the way we feel and operate, and we will have the ability to change them. We can also learn from mistakes that we make, and keep them always in a diary. 3º Look for a strategy that has the following characteristics:
Make it SIMPLE. Nothing of 4 or more indicators or the colors of the gay flag drawn on the graph based on 1000 lines. Why? Because there is always an initial enthusiasm and maybe we can follow a complex strategy for a week, but burned that motivation, saturates us and we will leave it aside.
Therefore, the strategy must be simple. If we use metatrader, the default indicators work. No macd's no-lag and similar tools. That does not lead anywhere. And if you do not believe it, I'll tell you that in all areas of life comes marketing. In addition to trading towards MMA and now I do powerlifts, and there are 1000 exercises to do. However, the classics are still working and work very well. It seems that sellers of strange sports equipment do not share the same opinion, that the only thing they want is to sell! 4º Understand the strategy:
We must gut each process of the strategy and reason about it. What does this indicator do? What does this process? Why this and not another? Why this exit ?. Some strategies will be based on unspecified outputs. This does not suppose any problem because as we get experience in that specific strategy, we will remember situations that have occurred, we will see situations that are repeated (patterns) and we will be able to find better starts and entrances. Everything is in our hands.
5° Collect essential statistical information:
This part is FUNDAMENTAL, and no operator can have as much security in itself when operating as if it uses a strategy that has at least positive mathematical hope and an acceptable drawdown.
Step 1: To carry out this collection of information you need to test the strategy for at least 100 signals. Yes, 100 signals.
Assuming it is an intraday strategy and we do an operation per day, it will take us 100 days (3 months and 10 days approx) to carry out the study. Logically these figures can change depending on the number of operations that we make up to date with the strategy. I have no doubt that after reading this manual we will go for a quick strategy of scalpers, with 100 signals every 10 minutes where the seller comes out with a big smile in his promotional video. I personally recommend a system of maximum 2 daily operations to start, but this point is personal. Is it a long time? Go! It turns out that a college student of average intelligence takes 6 years to finish a career. It takes 6 years just to train, and there are even more races. This does not guarantee any profitability, and in any case most of Sometimes it will get a static return and not based on compound interest. I can never aspire to more. The market offers compound profitability, there will be no bosses, nor schedules that we do not impose. We will always have work, and we can earn a lot more money than most people with careers or masters. Is it a long time? I do not think so. As I was saying, we will test the strategy 100 times with our REAL account that we created in step 1. Did you decide to use a demo account? Better look for another manual; This has to be something serious. They are 100 dollars and will be the best investment of all in your career as a trader.
Step 2: Once with the report of the 100 strategies in hand, we will collect the following information:
How many times have we won and how many lost. Afterwards, we will find the percentage of correct answers.
How much have we won and how much have we lost? Afterwards, we will find the average profit and the average loss.
Step 3: With this information we will complete the mathematical hope formula:
(1 + average profit / average loss) * (percentage of correct answers / 100) -1 Example:
Of the 100 operations there are 50 winners and 50 losers, then the success rate is 50%.
Our average profit is 20 dollars and our average loss is 10 dollars.
Filling the formula: (1 + 20/10) * (50/100) -1 (1 + 2) * (0,5) -1 3 * 0.5 - 1 1,5 - 1 = 0,5 In this example the mathematical expectation is 0.5. It is POSITIVE, because it is greater than 0. From 0, we will know that this strategy will make us earn money over time ALWAYS we respect the strategy. If after a few days we modify it, then we will have to find this equation again with another 100 different operations. Easy? A result of "0" would mean that this strategy does not win or lose, but in the long run we would LOSE due to the spread and other random factors. You have to try to find a strategy that, once this study is done, the result of your mathematical hope is greater than 0.2 as MINIMUM. Finding this formula will also give a curious fact. The greater the take profit in relation to the stop loss, as a general rule more positive will be our mathematical hope. This has given many pages of discursiones about whether to place take profit> stop loss or vice versa. If our stop was larger than the take profit, then the other ratio (% earned /% lost) should be yes or yes positive. But this is just curiosities. let's keep going:
6° Expand our comfort zone:
We will not be able to work with operations of 10 million dollars overnight, but we can progressively condition ourselves to that path. Assuming all of the above, and with a real account, some experience in the 3 months of information gathering and a positive mathematical hope, we are ready to operate in real with some consistency. But how to carry it out? The comfort zone is the psychological limits we have before feeling fear or emotional tension. When we get into a fight, we have left our comfort zone and we feel tension, unless we have a psychopathic disorder. Every time we lean out onto a 300-meter balcony from a skyscraper, we move away from the comfort zone. Every time we speak to a depampanante woman, we move away from our comfort zone. Our brain creates a comfort zone to differentiate what we usually do and is not substantially dangerous, from the unknown and potentially dangerous to our survival or reproduction. And whenever the brain interprets that these two aspects are in danger, we will feel negative emotions like fear, disgust, loneliness, fury, etcetera. This topic is much more profound and you would have to read several volumes of evolutionism to understand the why of each thing. The only thing that interests us here is the "what", and the one, that is, that there is a certain comfort zone that must be expanded without any problems. With trading, exactly the same thing happens. The forex market is a virtual environment in which we lose or gain things, but our brain does not differentiate between reality and what is not, it only attends to stimuli of a certain type. We can lose food in the middle of the forest or also a crude oil operation. Our goal is to condition our subconscious so that it is progressively accepting lost and small benefits, and as time goes by, bigger. The exercise to achieve this is the following:
We will operate on that account of 100 dollars with our mathematically positive strategy for 3 more months.
After these three months, our account should have benefits, because of the mathematically positive strategy.
We will enter 200 dollars more and we will operate a month more raising the lots according to our risk management (I do not advise that the risk is greater than 2%)
At this point, I know how hard it is to resign myself to impatience, but follow those times and do not skip it even if you feel safe, but you will fail, it's simple. Let's keep going:
After that month, we will raise our capital again with a new income. This time we will enter 1000 dollars (save if you do not have 1000 dollars loose, you will recover later on, do you want to make money, enter 1000 dollars.
We will test the operation one month with this new injection. We probably notice difficulties. More blockages, more euphoria when winning ... how will we know when to move on to the next entry? When we do not feel ANYTHING or at most something very shallow, when win or lose If observing the wall and operating is for you the same from an emotional point of view, it is time to enter more money.
We will follow this procedure until we have a basic account of 21000 dollars. The amounts to be paid will depend on our ability to not feel emotions, a capacity that will be taking over time.
We will raise capital until we feel that we block too much. In that case we will drawdown to a more acceptable amount, and we will continue at that level until get discipline and lack of reactivity at that level. Later, we will go up.
If we want to earn more money, we will continue entering and entering. Always following the conditioning scheme of 1 month.
Why a month? A study conducted in the United States revealed that the subconscious needs an average of 28 days to create new habits or eliminate old habits. Emotional reactions are part of the habits. If we maintain some pressure of any emotion during the opportune time, in this case 28 days, will create tolerance and the subconscious will need a more intense version of the stimulus to activate. AND THAT'S ALL! Follow these steps and you will triumph. Here is the golden chalice, the tomb of Jesus or whatever you want to call it. There is no more mystery in the world of trading. This system will accompany you during the next year, year and a half. It's the one I used and it WORKS. Once done, you will have a very profitable system integrated into your being, since not only will it be mathematically viable, but you will also have the necessary experience to make it infinitely more profitable yet. In addition, you will have psychology fully worked on a professional level to have conditioned your subconscious gradually. Happy trading to all of u guys.-
How to Trade Last couple of these have been personal stories and anecdotal. Here's Part I, Part II, and Part III This ‘Guide’ is meant for retail investor education. I really hope it doesn’t sound condescending, it’s honestly not meant to be. There’s all kinds of material out there for the new, the intermediate, and advanced DIY investor. Looking up different views and perspectives is a good idea. But fundamentals won’t change. Nobody needs another ringtone. For the retail investor, this is the most important of the bunch. Bar none. If I only made one post, this would be it. Get some money together, open an account at a broker, sign a 20 page document that’s been written in 4 point Calibri, and off you go. You’re a ‘trader’. Imagine if getting a driver’s licence was the same way. You pony up for a car, gas it up, get in, and have at ‘er. Thankfully it doesn’t work that way. That’s why insurance is required by law. There’s driving schools & road testing. And one of your parents got you to that point by taking you out when you were old enough, putting you behind the wheel in an empty parking lot, all while silently praying that you won’t fuck it up. Yet despite all this, bad drivers exist. Many don’t know they’re bad drivers, and would never see themselves that way. Worst of all, they’ll never get better at it. Ever. No matter how many driving courses they take, they will still suck. There’s reality shows made about it. The bad driver might improve slightly over time. And hopefully they won’t take out a bus load of nuns and orphans while they’re improving slightly. Unlike driving, there’s only four things to know about trading.
Position is directional. That means short, or long. Exposure is the amount of $$$ you stand to lose. Risk is the likelihood and magnitude of prices moving against position. Holding period is defined by the amount you are willing to lose or gain until you close a position. Risk can be estimated in several ways. Some like u/GoBlueCdn find it in costs and financial statements. u/CytochromeP4 knows emergent industrial processes and the plant and validates scalability against economics. Fundamental analysis, management decisions, market potential….etc are methods to approaching it, and to get a handle on it. Trading equities is a total bitch compared to commodities. I sometimes see equities like the guy who nobody knows and none can remember inviting to the the party, who shows up, drinks all the punch, eats every cocktail wiener, drinks the last beers in the fridge, and then grabs the neighbour’s wife’s ass on the way out at the end of the night. Yes, I’m biased, because I’m a commodity guy. It’s my opinion. In commodities I can get positions and exposures on exactly what I want in exactly the time periods I want. I can find leverage easily. I can alter exposures through hedging down to a few dozen basis points. I can separate physical from financial exposure. I see risk having less moving parts, and purer. I get notional and realized PnL closed daily, and crystallized regularly. Equities are filled with dirty hedges. You can get risk - by no want of your own - picked up in some CEO’s shitty pet project in a non-core division he spent $100 million on using debentures. Hedging forex exposure isn’t as easy because you can’t walk it to a penultimate. Holding periods aren’t well defined. Exposures need to be rebalanced, and it’s worse in volatile markets, ffs. Equities can be a pain in the ass to me, all in all. With equities - some mutt you’ve had in your portfolio for years could hold a patent to a process that’s just been adopted industry wide. The clouds part, the sun shines, and the birds sing. That isn’t commodities tho. It’s also a reason why I’m hard on retail guys who diddle with options but don’t know the exposures. Not knowing your exposure is the same as giving a 5 year old a chainsaw. Anyway. This isn’t a commercial for the NYMEX or the CBOT, or dissuading you from trading. This is for illustrating the differences between position, exposure, risk, and hold period. I’ve seen and heard things over the past year, both from people I know to claims made on the internet. A lot of it is idiocy. Length can make money simply by being in a rising market. Just as a gambler can by hitting a red 7 on the nose with a stack of chips. The market isn’t going to rise forever, nor will that red 7 keep hitting. Good traders don’t care about direction. They care about position and exposure based upon assumed risk. If I’m whining about a specific company or regulatory moves, it’s usually in context of changes in assumptions I’ve made about risk, or, about the potential changes in it. A trader doesn’t care about the horse, they only care about how it finishes. Or maybe that it won’t. And a trader doesn’t gamble. Games in a casino are fully described by game theory, and governed by mathematical law. Risk in these games is fully articulated, known, and quantifiable. The future is predicted by actual probabilities. Cost is known in advance. A good gambler takes measured risk, understands their exposure, and adjusts position. Trading isn’t gambling, because underlying a trade is assets that are predicated on generating future cash flow. Gambling is ‘betting’ on the outcome of a unique cash flow on a single event: there are no assets. Another try requires another purchase - another position. I hope this is useful. That it gives context to posts, and why I sound like I do. In my work experience, there’s a bazillion who talk a good game, but they sure as fuck aren’t traders. I seriously don’t care about who is going to take over the world of cannabis. I only care that I had the right position and exposure to have made my day. Or month. Or year. Or decade. I’m aiming for a target when I shoot. Whenever you hear things like ‘catching a falling knife’ or ’strong hands’ or a hundred others like them - this is fuckwad backfilling bullshit. To a trader, they’re just like hearing a toddler trying to say words. They are phrases surrounding price events. And they are utterly useless. If I’m opening a position to get exposure to a risk I want to accept….and then closing that position when my underlying risk assumptions change or a target gets hit in a hold….that’s trading. Nobody likes to hear they’re bad at something. But it’s better to figure it out before you drop 20 large finding it out. By applying the basics of trade - you can at least learn to drive defensibly, which will give you the best chance of getting home safely. Catching a falling knife? You aren't even gambling sucker. You're on a midway.
Should I buy bitcoins? The idea that you may lose money is making you pass on a tremendous opportunity.
I replied to this thread, and I thought my comment might be of use to the influx of new users on /bitcoin.
How much money do you throw away on a monthly basis? How many Starbucks, how many beers, and how many nights do you eat out? Take a little of that money and invest. The potential upside is definitely worth the downside of losing a few bucks. Just think of it as money you have already lost. Don't ever expect to get back a penny and don't ever expect to 'cash out'. Just hope you wake up one day 20-30 years from now and you realize you have a nice retirement fund. You aren't a FOREX daytrader, you're just some guy (no offense). Buy and hold, that simple. What were you doing with that money anyway? I have seen this question about people sitting on the fence more than a few times, and I am beyond puzzled by it. Suppose you buy 2 coins at the current record price of ~$49, according to the idea that we reach just 1% of the world currency market, your $100 would be worth ~$56,780. Do you think you can handle losing $100? People keep getting scared about losing money, how much money do you really save!? Are you really scrimping every penny toward retirement? I bet not. Losing a hundred dollars is doable for most people, and most people probably do it every month without realizing it. You aren't buying a lottery ticket, you are buying something you believe in. Like gold, food, or timber, bitcoin is a commodity. Owning a bitcoin is like owning an ETF on all of bitcoin space. Why in the world would you pass by this opportunity!? TLDR: Potential loss = $100 Potential gain = ~$56,780 Which one do you perceive to be the greater loss?
I hope this helps some people who are thinking about buying bitcoins :) And if you can't stand to lose $100 you probably shouldn't be looking at buying bitcoins or any speculative investment for that matter. Pay some bills or save in a bank account. Have a great day everyone!
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